Thursday, February 16, 2017

The rapidly deepening crisis of the Trump regime.

A Statement from Facts For Working People

And then there were two. Image source

We live in a period in which US and world capitalism is in extreme economic and political crisis. A new economic event like 2008 only worse lies ahead and continuing wars in the Middle East, Ukraine, Africa, and elsewhere, and the new arms build up threaten more wars including possible nuclear conflict. On top of this, the political shambles that is the Trump White house reverberates worldwide.

The speed of events is unprecedented. A few months ago it looked like Clinton would win the US election. Then the FBI director Comey intervened and tipped the scales just enough to let in Trump. There was great weeping and gnashing of teeth amongst just about all decent people in the country. Also some despair.

But some of us said that things were not all bleak. We at Facts For Working People said that Trump was the whip of the counterrevolution that would force a new movement to its feet. And this is exactly what has happened. We never thought it would come as quickly as it did but we are very pleasantly surprised that it has. The Women’s Marches, the Resistance movement, the welcoming of immigrants at airports and now talk of “days without immigrants” which would in reality be strikes of immigrant workers and supporters against Trumps immigration policies. These are all examples of the new movement that is arising. This crisis is up and at it and it is going to run and run.    
And now with the forcing of Flynn out of his position as national Security Adviser it has gotten dramatically worse. He only lasted 24 days. Kissinger the war criminal lasted in that position over 2,478 days. 

US capitalism rules through its ownership and domination of the economy. Through this it has created a system of rule based on a political arm which it monopolizes with its two capitalist parties, the Republicans and the Democrats and a military,  legal, police and spy network and dirty tricks wing.

In spite of differences amongst all these over the centuries, US capitalism because of its economic wealth, some of it looted from the rest of the planet, and with which it so far been able to placate a section of its own working class, has been able to keep its often competing agencies of repression and control on the same page.

Nixon tested this system but it stood the test at the cost of Nixon’s Presidency. They kicked him out to save their system. What we are seeing now is US capitalism’s system of rule once again coming under extreme pressure. This is what accounts for the near panic stricken tones in most of the serious media of US capitalism. As this is going on US capitalism is considering what to do with Trump. 

The authors of this Blog have always said that the most conscious and powerful section of US capitalism wanted Clinton to be President. She was more reliable, predictable, experienced etc. But again, in a sign of their crisis, the US capitalist class was not able to get their preferred candidate into the White House. Instead they got Trump. What is Trump this creature who sits in the White House with the nuclear buttons, when he is not staying at one of his palaces to increase its value and the value of his brand?

He is a number of things. One is that he is stupid. This is shown by his continual attacks on the different wings of the capitalist class to which he also belongs. It is shown by his attacks on the capitalist media. It is shown by his attacks on the judges and judicial system. But perhaps most of all it is shown by his attacks on the spy networks and agencies and dirty tricks departments of US capitalism. 

Attacking these forces is particularly stupid in this period of the Internet and high technology when just about every computer and every phone call can be accessed by the US state spy agencies. It is clear they had records of Flynn talking to Putin’s man before and after the elections and assuring them all would be okay when Trump got in if he did get in and so it would be good if Putin helped trump. According to US law this is treason. There is no way that Trump did not know about this. This is what accounts for the recent statement from the anonymous member of one of the US spy networks that Trump would spend the end of his life in prison.  

The decisive wing of US capitalism is trying to get together to rescue the situation and this means so far to prop up and control Trump. But it is by no means certain that they can do so. This is part of his stupidity also. It is also part of his arrogance. He thinks he can bully and defy the other wings of his own class like he has done workers and women with which he interacted over his years. It is also part of his lack of any knowledge of history and also how US capitalism rules. The reason he does not take many so called intelligence briefings is that he thinks he knows everything and also that his ignorance and stupidity would be shown up to all. To rule a country the size of the USA with its powerful global influence it is necessary to have some understanding of how the world works, the balance of forces at any given time and of history. Trump has no knowledge of these things.

Then there is, and this is part of his stupidity and arrogance also, the information or rather the lack of information about his businesses.  He still will not show his tax returns. These would show his business dealings over the past years. It is practically certain they would also show why he is such a good friend to Putin. In 2008 Donald Trump Jr., his son, said the following: “We see a lot of money passing in from Russia.” His Tax returns could be a death blow to him. 

So will Trump last? It is impossible to say for sure. But what it is possible to say is that he is dramatically weaker today than he was a few days ago and getting weaker by the day. Losing his nominee for Labor Secretary was no help to him. It brought up  the memory of his own abuse of women given what came up was the extreme physical violence his labor secretary nominee had carried against his former partner.  

Trump remains in power because the more conscious and powerful section of the US capitalist class thinks their system of rule and their rule would be more weakened by bringing him down than keeping him in and surrounding him by more people of their own way of thinking and working. But it is not at all sure they can do this, or that Trump will listen to or cooperate with such people. If this is shown to be the case, Trump will be brought down one way or another. Not only US spy agencies but other country’s spy agencies must have computers full of information on his dealings and conversations.  There is plenty of dirt on him out there. 

But there are factors that allow Trump to stay in power for the moment. One is the monopoly that capitalism has over the country’s political system. There is no mass workers’ party that could build and lead a movement to bring him down.  The Democrats want to weaken him but not weaken the political system. They want to get back into power and rule through that system again themselves. So they rant and rave about Trump but do not act decisively.

The Republicans are in a real bind. Their establishment wing never thought he would be President but when he was they all jumped on what they thought was the bandwagon of a Trump led total domination of US politics. Now as he sinks and the whole show looks like running off the road, they are still propping him up because they are afraid they might all go down with him. But if things go on as they do, it will not be long before the Republican leaders begin to defect. You can see this in the developing anger in people like Republican Senator John McCain. You can see it also in statements from lower level Republicans. 

A life long Republican who was 30 years a judge just made the following statement: “We must admit we have elected a President who has proved himself to be a grifter, a pathological liar, a mean spirited bully and dangerous to American values.” This from a life long Republican. And he went on to call for the “drafting of letters of impeachment.” 

If the dominant sectors of the capitalist class conclude that he has to go he will go-----one way or another. The serious and influential mass media are now beginning to turn their fire on him. The spy agencies and legal system are turning on him. Not even sharing with him some of the information they get from their spying. It is most likely that if he cannot adjust he will be removed one way or another. US capitalism also it should be remembered has a history and tradition of assassination of unwanted leaders.  

At present they are trying to tame him by increasing the numbers of top, more sane  military brass and top military industrial complex people in his regime. Mattis, former military top man is secretary of defense. It now seems he is to be joined by Harward the former deputy commander of the US central command which has overseen the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and that region.

He is also a top executive of Lockheed Martin and oversees arms sales and its  business to the United Arab Emirates. If Harward, who has lived in Iran and speaks Farsi, gets appointed, this will strengthen the military industrial complex in the Trump regime relative to the oil and gas wing around the secretary of state and Trump, both of whom have been cozying up to Putin, seemingly for the money they can make with oil and gas deals in Russia and business in Russia. Mattis has just put out a statement much more aggressive towards Putin and much more supportive of Nato. So there are signs of a strengthening of the somewhat saner wing in the White House. This could prolong the life of the regime for a time. 

However it will also increase tensions in the White House as the cranks and lightweights like Bannon, Conway and Preibus fight amongst themselves. This will not help the regime. 

Would it be possible if Trump felt the Presidency slipping from his hands that he could launch a new war or even some kind of partial nuclear war or event? This is unlikely as the dominant sectors of the capitalist class and the state apparatus have probably thought of this and taken measures to see that he does not get his fingers on the nuclear buttons or that if the weapons would incapacitated in advance in case he did lose it. This shows the serious nature of this situation. It would not at all be good for US capitalism if other nations knew that the US nuclear arsenal was hobbled in this way. This is how serious this crisis is.  

Then there are the other possibilities. Could the unprecedented movement from below see him backtrack on some of his campaign insanities and threats and promises. He is already doing this marginally in some cases. He might decide to try and back away from abolishing the Affordable Care Act. (ACA.) But can he do this given the right wing nuts who control congress. There is also the increasing support for ACA. And this will probably increase as people see that the Republicans have no alternative except one that is worse.  Every day we read about new movements springing up. About movements and organizations seeking to work together or merge. Trump will come under greater and greater pressure from below. 

However there is one major factor that will give him a little room for maneuver. That is the role of the trade union leaders. They will not mobilize their 14 million members. Instead they met with that degenerate in the White House laughing and sharing drinks together. Some of them are even supporting him in his struggle against the fight at Standing Rock. The Resistance Movement must seek to organize and build in the rank and file of the trade unions and workplaces.

There are many union members in the Resistance Movement. They must organize in their union among the rank and file and in their workplaces workplaces and have the future Resistance events awash with union members marching with their union banners and heads held high. This would not only transform the unions but it would transform the Resistance Movement.

Of course the Trade union leaders will not do this precisely because it would transform the unions and threaten their own position.

This is a statement from Facts For Working people. We are a small group of working people and youth who organize against capitalism and for international democratic socialism. We ask all who agree with this article and the statement we recently put out in which we advocate the Resistance Movement build, to contact us and join us. 

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